Real Estate: The Good News for 2026
It has been “difficult” in real estate the last few years. So I went to the Housing Wire Economic Summit this week, at the George Bush Presidential Library in Dallas, expecting more of the same, but perhaps with a hint of rose colored glasses. However the tone at HousingWire was noticeably different than the last 3 years at other events. The economists in the spotlight weren’t pitching a miracle cure, nor a pie in the sky dream. They were describing something better: balance. It’s a term I was not familiar with as it relates to real estate.
Below are the big takeaways from three economists that were on stage. Trust me, it’s good news for small teams, agents, and brokers who’ve been grinding through tight inventory, rate shock, and hesitant clients.
Logan Mohtashami (HousingWire Lead Analyst):
You’ve Endured … Now, the backdrop finally works
Logan Mohtashami is great on stage at taking data and working the room. Great presentation. He framed today’s market as a familiar chapter. (well, familiar for us old experienced folks) Think back to the early 1980s: prices ran ahead of wages in the ’70s, rates spiked, everyone predicted “a nation of renters,” (he cited some newspaper clippings) just like they are today. Oh no, the sky is falling for real estate! Its all over! And then … wages grew, households formed, and the curve bent positively.
Key points that matter operationally:
- Inventory has done what it needed to do post pandemic. Higher rates pushed supply up (roughly +33% at peak), cooling price growth and giving wages time to catch up.
- Volatility is low. That alone brings people off the sidelines.
- Price cuts are lower than the last two years. Sellers are adjusting, not panicking.
- Homeowners are fundamentally strong: higher credit scores than pre-2008, meaningful equity, and low foreclosure stress.
- Foreclosures and Bankruptcies are FAR below pre pandemic levels (pictured)
- About 40% of homes have no mortgage at all; overall LTV sits near the mid-40s. This is not a fragile owner base.
- People are staying longer (11–13 years on average), but life still happens. Equity + time eventually equals movement.
His blunt advice: endure. Thirty-year fixed mortgages are doing their job. As rates drift lower (below the mid-6s and heading south), transactions respond. Once seasonality clears, the setup is the best it’s been in years.
Mike Simonsen (Chief Economist, Compass):
Slow spring thaw, real data, positive signals
Mike Simonsen is a long time friend, and an industry expert 6 months into his new role at compass. He stuck to his roots, and focused less on headlines and more on mechanics. As he did while running Altos, he stays focused on the data trends, looking for clues about where we are pointed.
Mikes take away highlights:
- Home sales growth is expected to be modest but positive (around mid-single digits).
- Incomes are now growing faster than home prices. That’s a quiet but important regime change.
- Inventory is up year over year, but at a slower pace than last year. Translation: normalization, not flooding of the market.
- Regional reality matters. The Midwest and Northeast remain tight on inventory; parts of the Sunbelt have more supply, softer prices, and longer days on market.The national avg will be different than your neighborhood.
- The “great stay” isn’t just about low mortgage rates—it’s also job uncertainty. If hiring improves, mobility improves.
- There’s pent-up owner demand that temporarily delisted. If conditions feel safer this spring, those listings come back, but pricing discipline still matters.
Bottom line: when inventory rises in a controlled way, prices don’t collapse; they stabilize. That’s healthier for everyone trying to transact consistently.
Related: If you are a data nerd, he is must watch weekly youtube.
Barry Habib (Founder, MBS Highway): This is not 2008
I’ve never seen Barry on stage, and I really appreciated his direct no nonsense style supported by data.
Barry worked to dispel the popular narrative that “this is a housing bubble, we are all doomed” / “OMG it’s worse than 2008”. This works to get clicks, and makes money – but it just doesn’t match the data. I’m really glad to have someone directly contradict / bust those myths…. especially with data. His case:
- There is no housing bubble like in the GFC. There are too many rules in place to let that happen.
- Credit quality, equity, and underwriting are fundamentally different than the GFC era.
- Rates are expected to trend lower. Forecasts put 30-year mortgages in the mid-5s at the low end, with broader consensus still moving down.
- Transactions fell—but household formations fell too. There’s a backlog of people delaying moves, families, and first purchases.
- People move due to life events. See also: Revaluate.com
- Home prices have risen in 78 of the last 83 years.
- His outlook: low-to-mid single-digit appreciation is the base case, not a stretch. (nationwide avg)
- Listing behavior is normalizing. Some markets are above pre-pandemic levels, some below—but the direction is healthier.
The takeaway for practitioners: The floor is solid. Growth doesn’t require heroics.
TLDR for agents, teams, and brokers
Everything is finally in balance. Stress Less. There is good news for real estate in 2026. Plan for a better year. (but also, don’t plan a party)
- Less volatility means more moves.
- Inventory exists without crushing prices.
- Homeowners have equity and patience, not distress.
- Rates don’t need to be perfect—they just need to drift lower.
- Life events still drive transactions, even in a “great stay” world.
After a few years of playing defense, 2026 looks like a return to normal offense. Not flashy. Just workable—and that’s good news. This will make it easier to convert buyer and seller leads this year – and to work your database of old contacts and convert them into transactions.
One Final Line
It’s definitely possible that Will Ferrell and Kris Katan’s characters from A Night at The Roxbury may have indirectly inspired the outfits for Barry and Logan. However, while I very much enjoyed the content and company at the Housing Wire Economic Summit, there was far less dancing, drinking and zero snow at this Summit. I’m still a teenager at heart, and couldn’t stop giggling at the visual similarity. I’m probably alone on this one – especially in that room of people way smarter than me … and that’s ok.
Side note, HW ran a post I wrote for valentines day today (and Oh Joy, no paywall!)
