NSFW: Graphic Housing Data
Interest Rates Are Staying Higher for Longer — Here’s What That Means for Real Estate Professionals
The housing data I’m going to show, might be upsetting to those of you in the housing sector.
But, You probably already know it in your heart and soul – I’m just going to show you the data, in a sexy graphic form.
As of July 21, interest rate traders give less than a 5% chance the Fed cuts rates at their next meeting. That means there’s a 95% chance we’re staying put—no relief coming in July. (per Kiplinger)
Or August.
And what about later this year?
“Market participants expect two 25 basis point cuts in 2025, with the first possibly coming no sooner than September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Even then, confidence is slipping: the odds of a cut in September dropped from 66% last week to just 60% today.”
So what’s happening in the market and housing data while we (inpatiently) wait?
Listings Are Up. Sales Are Down. And Buyers Are Watching from the Sidelines.
Here’s the reality:
- Inventory has grown in many markets.
- Interest rates remain stubbornly high.
- Home sales are continuing to be slower than we’d like to see.
We’re seeing more sellers dip their toes in… but the pool of buyers isn’t as deep as it was.
The housing data tri-chart below tells the story. Since the Great Financial Crisis, the relationship between interest rates, listings, and home sales has been a push-and-pull game. When rates spiked in 2022 and stayed high through 2024, home sales fell—but listings are now rising as sellers start adjusting expectations.
What I think this shows, is that the sellers are willing to buy at the higher prices, and perhaps pay the higher rate for a new home. But… they are not willing to drop the price of their home to do so – as DOM keeps flipping calendar pages.
Historical Trends Since the GFC (Great Financial Crisis)
- Red Line: Fed interest rate
- Blue Line: Annual U.S. home sales (millions)
- Green Line: Active listings (millions)
Data Source: Federal Reserve, NAR, and modeled projections
So What Should Agents Do?
If you are a good agent. No fret. You will find a way. But I gotta think this will trim the fat out of the agent ranks soon. Those that got it will keep it – if they continue to innovate and grow forward.
Now more than ever, agents need to know who’s likely to move—before they raise their hand. That data lives in your CRM, but it’s often untouched. Dormant.
When interest rates are high, timing matters. Relationships matter. And uncovering hidden opportunities makes the difference between surviving and thriving.
Need help finding those sellers before they hit the market? Let’s talk. We’ll audit your database for free.
