Pivotal Real Estate Data Forecast

Attention Real Estate Data forecast Nerds … I have better than good real estate data forecast news to share. There are signals that the market is shifting – but don’t get rid of that lifejacket just yet.

The Signals

There’s 38% more inventory than a year ago. (housing wire) That’s huge and great for buyers after such a long inventory drought. However, its not enough to get back to pre pandemic times. In fact there are still 32% fewer homes on the market now than normal. (in 2019 / pre pandemic)

As of today, inventory is growing in all 50 states.

If mortgage rates drop we ought to see Demand will growing faster than supply, eating back into the inventory. This would also cause more sellers to enter the market – for DOM to reduce and for prices to somewhat stabilize thru the end of the year (prior to the holidays).

If the news predicts and reports that rates will be dropping, I’d like to think that people will buy now, and refinance when they like the rate.

Will Rates Drop?

Mortgage rates have dropped below 7% for the first time in months.
Seventy percent of monetary policy watchers project a reduction in rates for the Fed as soon as their meeting in September, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicted that mortgage rates will fall from to 6.6% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall to 6% at the end of 2025 and will average 5.8% in 2026. (USNews)

When Fannie Mae released their report in June, they obviously didn’t have this new data. They projected a lighter reduction (albeit a reduction) in the Housing Forecast from puts the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.7% by year-end. 

Grow With The Flow

This real estate data forecast all seems to be showing a shift in the tides. Perhaps now we are not yet dropping but in between where there is little change. Nautical folks will know it as “the slack tide”. Much like the mortgage and real estate industry who are compensated on each transaction, I look forward to lower rates, more inventory and greater transactions in the coming months.

So what to do in the slack tide? Stand still? Grow? The choice is yours, skipper.

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