New Data: Domestic Migration Map

You don’t need to see the Domestic Migration Map to know that people move from the bitter cold and grey sky’d north and midwest, to the sunshine of the south. It’s common knowledge. But that vastly oversimplifies the story, and some places net migration over the last 23 years are frankly shocking.

People move most frequently because of life events. Realestate agents know this first hand. At Revaluate we call these life events the Data D’s. Death, Divorce, Diapers, Diamonds, Diplomas, the Daily Grind and Disposable income.

This weekend we saw tragic loss of life and property due to Hurricane Helene. The path of the storm continued far beyond typical beach side communities. At 2300 ft elevation, Far above sea level places like Asheville North Carolina, 500 miles from Florida’s beaches didn’t have to worry about storm surge or sea level rise – but are dealing with unprecedented hurricane flooding. Asheville has seen significant growth in the last 23 years.

Moving Trends

What has not been considered a “Data D” of moving, has been Natural Disasters. Perhaps it ought to be considered by more people – myself included. When moving to Colorado, our family did not discuss the risk of wildfires. However, we’ve had fire as close as half a mile to our home. Twice. I’ve certainly never had an agent talk about “risk”.

The NYT wrote this piece on Monday: Where Americans Have Been Moving Into Disaster-Prone Areas, showing that despite the danger, many of us prefer where we live over the potential risk of deadly natural disasters.

The reason these storms are so deadly, and have so much property destruction can be seen in the data. There’s simply more people, and more assets in the region than 20 years ago. “Between 2000 and 2023, Florida added more than 3 million people through domestic migration. North and South Carolina added another 2.5 million.” More people covering more square miles, means more destruction per storm.

The exception to the rule, are cities like Miami and Los Angeles that are warm, sunny and historically desirable. However, this Domestic Migration Map Data clearly shows, that these two major cities have negative migration over the last 23 years. Fires, floods and mudslides in southern California, and sea level rise combined with high hurricane risk in The Magic City.

How will real estate agents treat these situations in the future? Will they be required to discuss such risks with buyers? Should a buyer agent help the buyer with these risk reviews? And perhaps more importantly, what about you and your family? Have you made housing decisions based on natural disaster risk? Will you in the future?

Details on The Data

Note: The Population changes shown on NYT maps reflect domestic migration and do not include international migration or local births and deaths.

County population change data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and covers the years 2000 to 2023. Each year of net migration estimates runs from July 1 of the prior year to June 30. All migration estimates reflect net domestic migration, and do not include international immigration or births and deaths.